So that comes to about a half million who remained in the U.S., although most were facing immigration enforcement proceedings, which could ultimately end in deportation.
Graham said that left about 230,000 unaccounted for, but as Mayorkas explained, not all of those apprehensions represent different people. In fiscal year 2021 there was a recidivism rate — meaning the share of people caught crossing more than once — of 27%. If that rate were applied to apprehensions during Biden’s time in office, it would mean that of the roughly 1.9 million apprehensions, about 1.4 million were different people.
“It’s just not accurate that 2 million people have been released or allowed into the U.S.,” Jessica Bolter, an associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, told us in a phone interview.
Looking at the latest data for Biden’s presidency, there were 1.87 million people apprehended trying to cross the southern border illegally (not at a checkpoint) from February through December, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Of those, 56% — more than 1 million people — represent migrants who were immediately expelled under Title 42. And, as Mayorkas noted, given the recidivism rate, about a quarter of the 1.87 million were repeat offenders.
Mexican nationals, in particular, “are often immediately processed and removed,” as are those with criminal records, according to a 2018 report from the Department of Homeland Security.
“Existing enforcement measures are highly efficient at repatriating Mexicans, convicted criminals, and single adults who do not seek humanitarian relief,” according to the report.
Even among those who are not expelled, it’s a stretch to claim they have simply been absorbed into the U.S. population. A portion of them are placed into U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention and are later removed from the country, Bolter said. Others are released into the U.S. pending immigration hearings, and are monitored with ankle bracelets, while others are released without monitoring.
“It is not the equivalent of them being released into the U.S. with no accountability,” Bolter said.
Unauthorized Population
Of course, not every person who crosses the border illegally is apprehended. On April 2, 2021, the Washington Post cited three anonymous U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials who estimated that “[n]early 1,000 people per day are sneaking into the United States without being identified or taken into custody.” And in October, former Border Patrol Chief Rodney Scott told Fox News, “We have over 400,000 documented gotaways, people or incidents, where people cross the border, got away this last year.” Although official data on the number of those who crossed undetected has not been released, the Migration Policy Institute concluded — based on those estimates noted above — that, “[i]f that trend has held and the got-away numbers cited for 2021 are accurate, there were about 540,000 successful unlawful entries in FY 2021.”
But even if that number — 540,000 — is accurate and added to the number apprehended but not immediately expelled, that’s still well short of 2 million, Bolter noted.
Another way to check Cotton’s equating apprehensions to increased population is to look at estimates of the number of immigrants in the country illegally over time. For example, the Department of Homeland Security estimates that between January 2015 and January 2018, the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the U.S. remained fairly constant at 11.4 million, even though U.S. Customs and Border Protection recorded over a million apprehensions over that period.
In addition to DHS, several other groups, including the Migration Policy Institute, the Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies, provide yearly estimates of the number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S., based on Census data. Although the latest available are for 2019, the estimates from Pew and the Center for Migration Studies show that the overall number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. had been declining.
Steven A. Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors limits on immigration, said that is now changing. After years of decline in the estimated number of immigrants in the U.S. illegally, “all the evidence we have points to a large increase in the illegal population” since Biden took office, he said.
Camarota notes that, according to the Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey, the foreign-born population in the U.S. increased by 1.5 million people between November 2020 and November 2021. While that includes immigrants who came to the U.S. both legally and illegally, Camarota said, “A good share of this must be due to illegal immigrants in the data.”
But Bolter, from the Migration Policy Institute, cautioned not to assume that the soaring number of apprehensions since Biden took office means there is an equally high number of unauthorized immigrants now living in the country. The number of new immigrants in the country illegally is offset by unauthorized immigrants who leave the U.S. in any given year. In recent years, Bolter said, due to economic factors, a high number of Mexican immigrants in the U.S. have returned to Mexico, keeping the overall total relatively steady.
There’s one other factor to consider when determining the total number, and that’s visa overstays, Mittelstadt of the Migration Policy Institute told us. She said, “For the last several years at least, new additions to the unauthorized population have been predominantly from visa overstays, not illegal crossings. (Though we believe a slight majority of the overall unauthorized population is comprised of crossers, not overstayers.)”
It is difficult to say with the available data whether the population of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. is rising, and if so, what percentage may be due to illegal border crossing. But using border apprehensions as a proxy for that number is not the way to do it.
FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, 202 S. 36th St., Philadelphia, PA 19104.
