The tragic crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 on Christmas Day, killing 38 of the 67 people on board, is now the focus of an intense investigation. While initial reports suggested a bird strike, a preliminary probe by Azerbaijan authorities points to a far more disturbing explanation: an accidental shoot-down by a Russian anti-aircraft missile.
The aircraft, en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Chechnya, was diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan, after declaring an emergency. However, sources close to the investigation reveal that the plane’s GPS system was jammed prior to the crash and the plane was ordered to fly over the Caspian Sea towards Kazakhstan by Russian air traffic controllers. The plane was apparently denied a landing in Russia. Eyewitness accounts from survivors mention hearing a loud explosion before the plane began experiencing problems and plummeting to the ground.
The emerging evidence, including damage to the aircraft’s tail section, strongly suggests that the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile.[3] This type of missile system is known to be deployed in the region, which has seen increased Ukrainian drone activity. While the missile strike appears to be unintentional, the incident raises grave concerns about the safety of civilian aircraft in or near conflict zones.
The Kremlin has urged caution against speculating on the cause of the crash until the investigation is complete. However, multiple news outlets, citing sources familiar with the Azerbaijani investigation, report that a Russian Pantsir-S1 missile was most likely to blame.
This developing story requires a full and transparent investigation to determine the exact cause of the tragedy. The loss of 38 lives demands accountability and underscores the urgent need for stricter protocols to protect civilian aircraft operating in volatile regions. This incident has understandably created tension between Azerbaijan and Russia, and all countries impacted are calling for a thorough and transparent investigation into exactly what happened, including details about any electronic warfare measures being taken at the time that may have hampered communications for the aircraft.
