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Topline
By 2030, almost all countries will experience “extreme hot” weather every other year due mainly to greenhouse gas pollution by a handful of big emitters, according to a paper published Thursday by Communications Earth & Environment, reinforcing forecasts that the coming year will be one of the hottest on record.
The sun sets behind the Statue of Liberty on May 31, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Gary … [+]
Gary Hershorn/Getty Images
Key Facts
Ninety-two percent of countries will experience “extreme hot” temperatures, or temperatures that would have been observed just once per century in pre-industrial times, every other year, according to the study.
Without the influence of the five biggest emitters—China, the U.S., the European Union, India and Russia—only about 46% of countries would be likely to experience extreme heat with that frequency, researchers found.
Tropical African regions will be most severely impacted due to their low temperature variability from year to year, the study concluded.
The projections were based on emissions goals set before the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, and researchers said that the scenario they predicted could be averted if “substantial improvements” were made to national climate policies.
Key Background
Global warming has already had a dramatic effect on Earth’s climate, with average temperatures for the year forecast to rise 1.96 degrees over pre-industrial averages, contributing to increased flooding that could cost U.S. businesses $49 billion. Climate change has also yielded some unpredictable effects, such as a boom in beaver populations, leading to increased dam-building and subsequent flooding in the Arctic tundra.
Contra
Though transportation still accounts for roughly 29% of greenhouse gas emissions, new vehicles are among the least polluting ever manufactured. Thanks in part to increasingly stringent environmental standards, carbon dioxide emissions reached a record low for new cars in 2020. In 2017, reduced vehicle emissions saved about $270 billion in the U.S., according to a Harvard University study.
Further Reading
“Most countries may see annual heat extremes every second year: study” (France24)
“2022 Will Be One Of Earth’s Hottest Years, U.K. Climatologists Predict” (Forbes)
