LAS VEGAS, NEW MEXICO – JUNE 02: A scorched structure and vehicle stand on a property mostly … [+]
An internal review by the US Forest Service finds that climate change, federal bureaucracy and a malfunctioning weather station all contributed to setting the scene for the largest wildfire so far this year in the contiguous United States and in New Mexico state history.
An April 6, Forest Service crews began a prescribed burn in the Santa Fe National Forest above the city of Las Vegas, New Mexico. Within hours, shifting winds had led to out-of-control spot fires burning outside the planned burn area and the incident was declared a wildfire named the Hermit’s Peak Fire.
The fire would go on to merge with the nearby Calf Canyon wildfire that originated from a winter controlled burn – a smoldering pile from a burn months earlier improbably came back to life with the help of extreme heat, winds and dryness in April.
Over the course of the several weeks that followed, the Hermit’s Peak-Calf Canyon complex burned a corridor of the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains almost 45 miles long, including some of the most rugged terrain in the southwest. Hundreds of homes and over 341,000 acres were torched, nearly 50,000 residents were evacuated for weeks and livestock was lost. Fortunately no human lives were lost.
A Planned Burn Long Overdue
A review of the Gallinas-Las Dispensas Prescribed burn that started the Hermit’s Peak fire was released by the US Department of Agriculture and the office of the Forest Service Chief earlier this month. The document runs over 80 pages including a moment-by-moment retelling of what happened April 6, which begins with a fairly routine prescribed fire.
As the planned burn proceeded, crews ran into trouble communicating via their radios, but for the first few hours there seemed to be no reason for concern as the team worked to remove dangerous fuels from the forest floor.
The burn had been in the works for years but frequently delayed and then re-approved, often without updating. It was part of a plan to reduce fire danger that came about in response to a 2000 fire nearby that had significantly impacted the water supply for Las Vegas area residents for a time.
Around 3:30 p.m. on April 6, the winds began to shift, blowing embers and igniting small spot fires. The crews stopped igniting within the burn area to focus on controlling the spots. At 3:55 everything still seemed under control, according to the radio logs:
“ Burn Boss reported no holding concerns, several spots on Bravo, and that all ignition operations had stopped.”
Then the winds continued to shift.
MORA, NM- MAY 13: A firefighter works on putting out a hotspot from a wildfire on Friday May 13, … [+]
By 4:06 p.m. the Burn Boss reported a dozen or more spot fires and requested more resources. The spot fires began to grow together and make a run up the canyon. By 4:20 the erratic winds had started spot fires to the west, north and east sides of the fireline. At 4:28 the district Ranger was informed of the situation quickly getting out of control. Two minutes later the fire spread to the treetops, or crown, and made a run uphill to a ridge. It was now clear that they had a wildfire on their hands. The official declaration of a wildfire came at 4:38 p.m.
Climate and Other Complications
The fire would then burn intensely for over two months and has only recently been doused by significant monsoon rains. As of June 29, the fire complex is 93 percent contained with some smoldering still reported.
“Drought, extreme weather, wind conditions and unpredictable weather changes are challenging our ability to use prescribed fire as a tool to combat destructive fires,” Forest Service Chief Randy Moore writes in a foreword to the internal review.
While wind and weather conditions on the day of the prescribed burn were within acceptable limits, extreme winds gusting over 70 miles per hour at times along with heat and dry conditions would drive the spread of the fire throughout the end of April and into May.
Chief of the US Forest Service Randy Moore speaks at the US Forest Service Del Rosa fire station in … [+]
“A post-prescribed fire analysis of fuel and weather revealed that the implementation was occurring under much drier conditions than were recognized,” the review reads.
A light snow had fallen on the area a few days before the planned burn, which may have made the decision to go forward seem safer than it actually was.
“A clear recognition and acknowledgment of long-term drought and climate factors versus short-term weather events would have led toward better situational awareness of the fire environment and could have led to more favorable outcomes,” reads a section of the document listing lessons learned.
Other confounding issues included an out-of-service weather station, forcing the fire crews to rely on another nearby station that was not representative of actual conditions on the ground. The communications issues didn’t help, nor did the reality of working within the US Forest Service in 2022.
“Competing obligations limit the ability of the workforce to prioritize and focus on prescribed fire projects. Increasing agency goals for prescribed fire treatments and, in this case, expectations from the forest, district and the Burn Boss to begin catching-up after 2 years of delays due to government shutdowns, a global pandemic, and Mexican Spotted Owl regulations have led to unrealistic expectations,” reads the review’s executive summary. “These expectations, coupled with the opportunity to implement during a narrow window when the crew was available, smoke dispersion was good and the prescribed fire area was forecasted to be in prescription, led to acceptance of unforeseen risk.”
A Still-Smoldering Backlash
Locals and politicians in New Mexico including Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham demanded accountability as the fire continued to spread. On May 20, Moore initiated a 90-day freeze on all prescribed burns in National Forests. President Biden visited New Mexico briefly in June, reassuring residents that the federal government would take full responsibility for the fires.
The report only addresses the Hermit’s Peak fire, but Moore briefly acknowledges the Calf Canyon fire that would later spring to life during April’s extreme winds and merge with what was the prescribed burn of April 6.
US President Joe Biden joins New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham at the State Emergency … [+]
“This spring in New Mexico, a pile burn of hazardous logs that started in January, smoldered underground for months, persisting through multiple snowstorms and freezing temperatures, before resurfacing as a wildfire,” he writes. “That type of event was nearly unheard of until recently in the century-plus of experience the Forest Service has in working on these landscapes.”
Governor Lujan Grisham expressed her frustration with the “numerous missteps” identified in the review in a statement of her own last week.
“It is very difficult to understand how a plan crafted several years ago could be repeatedly re-approved without adjustments or considerations for updated drought conditions, as well as how that plan could be put into place without any immediate data for weather conditions during what New Mexicans know to be a particularly windy time of the year.”
The arrival of monsoon moisture in New Mexico means a temporary respite from wildfire danger, but impacted communities have had to quickly shift to prepare for an increased risk of flash flooding that often impacts burned regions.
