Canada has qualified for just one FIFA men’s World Cup in the nation’s history, but that could change ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Les Rouges are leading the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying with five matches left, and there is a real possibility that Canada could qualify for its first World Cup since 1986. Still, there’s work to be done to clinch one of three direct berths.
There’s a scenario in which Canada could clinch a World Cup berth with two more wins in the final two matches of this window against the USA and El Salvador. Two more victories would see Canada climb to 25 points. If both Panama and Costa Rica fail to pass the 15-point threshhold, that would have Canada mathematically clear before the final three matches are played in March.
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The three frontrunners all won their respective Matchday 9 contests with Canada still the only undefeated team left in the qualifying group. A couple of consecutive bad results could always alter the picture, but fans of Canada, the USA and Mexico will like their chances to advance at this point.
CONCACAF World Cup qualifying standings
Below are the current standings in the race to qualify for the 2022 World Cup from the CONCACAF region.
The top three teams earn automatic qualification to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, while the team finishing in fourth will play an intercontinental playoff against the winner of the Oceana region. The bottom four teams are eliminated.
| Team | PTS | GP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.* Canada | 19 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 5 | +10 |
| 2.* USA | 18 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 5 | +8 |
| 3.* Mexico | 17 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 |
| 4.* Panama | 14 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 |
| 5. Costa Rica | 12 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| 6. Jamaica | 7 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 |
| 7. El Salvador | 6 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 |
| 8. Honduras | 3 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 |
* The top three teams earn direct berths to Qatar 2022, while fourth place will head to an intercontinental playoff against a nation from Oceania.
Canada World Cup qualifying schedule & results
Below is the full list of Canada’s past results and upcoming matches in the quest for 2022 World Cup qualification.
| Date | Match | Time (ET) | TV / Stream |
| Sept. 2, 2021 | Canada 1, Honduras 1 | Highlights | |
| Sept. 5, 2021 | United States 1, Canada 1 | Highlights | |
| Sept. 8, 2021 | Canada 3, El Salvador 0 | Highlights | |
| Oct. 7, 2021 | Mexico 1, Canada 1 | Highlights | |
| Oct. 10, 2021 | Jamaica 0, Canada 0 | Highlights | |
| Oct. 13, 2021 | Canada 4, Panama 1 | Highlights | |
| Nov. 12, 2021 | Canada 1, Costa Rica 0 | Highlights | |
| Nov. 16, 2021 | Canada 2, Mexico 1 | Highlights | |
| Jan. 27, 2022 | Honduras 0, Canada 2 | Highlights | |
| Jan. 30, 2022 | Canada vs. United States | 3:05 p.m. | |
| Feb. 2, 2022 | El Salvador vs. Canada | 9 p.m. | |
| Mar. 24, 2022 | Costa Rica vs. Canada | TBD | |
| Mar. 27, 2022 | Canada vs. Jamaica | TBD | |
| Mar. 30, 2022 | Panama vs. Canada | TBD |
How many points to qualify for the World Cup?
If we’re using past regional World Cup qualifying cycles for historical comparisons, we need to use the points per game metric (PPG), since there were only 10 matches played in the CONCACAF final round in past cycles (compared to the 14 on the calendar in the lead-up to Qatar 2022).
While the number of matches was different, the top three spots still qualified directly to each World Cup tournament listed below (points per game of each qualified team indicated in bold). And since the 2006 World Cup, the fourth-place team advanced to a playoff against a nation from another region.
| Qualifying | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | — | — |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | — | — |
| 2006 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | — | — |
| 2010 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | — | — |
| 2014 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | — | — |
| 2018 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | — | — |
| 2022* | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Canada qualifying results projection
So what needs to realistically happen for Canada to be comfortably in that 1.8-1.9 points-per-game range it needs to qualify without breaking a sweat? Or, if fans wish to dream big, how can they push towards the 2.0 PPG barrier to claim the top spot?
MORE: Which teams have qualified for the 2022 World Cup?
We took a stab at projecting results for the final five matches, taking a less favorable set of outcomes to find the minimum required to comfortably qualify. Canada is currently undefeated in first place, but it only has two home games remaining in its final five (vs. USA and Jamaica) with three road trips to Central America coming up.
The less favorable set of outcomes includes a loss and two draws in those final five games. Considering a possible home loss to the United States, plus road draws at Panama and Costa Rica, the resulting total of 29 points (and an approximate 1.9 points-per-game mark) should be enough to qualify.
Thanks to the win in Honduras, Canada now has a little more room for error. For example, a draw instead of a win against both Jamaica and El Salvador would still leave Canada in a strong position (1.8 PPG), especially if the other teams around them (USA and Mexico) were to continue racking up wins. Clearly, a result (perhaps a win?) against the United States at home would go a long way towards avoiding a nailbiting finish and locking up a spot well before the final game in Panama.
| Match | Date | Opponent / Result | PPG |
| 10 | Sunday Jan. 30, 2022 | Canada 0, United States 1 (Loss) | 1.9 |
| 11 | Wednesday Feb. 2, 2022 | El Salvador 0, Canada 2 (Win) | 2.0 |
| 12 | Thursday March 24, 2022 | Costa Rica 1, Canada 1 (Draw) | 1.9 |
| 13 | Sunday March 27, 2022 | Canada 1, Jamaica 0 (Win) | 2.0 |
| 14 | Wednesday March 30, 2022 | Panama 2, Canada 2 (Draw) | 1.9 |
When might Canada secure World Cup qualification?
With five matches remaining in the qualification cycle (15 available points) and the top four teams within just five points, it is likely that qualification will come down to the March window of matches.
Canada woud need to win its next two matches and hope Costa Rica and Panama don’t go past 15 points in their next two games. That series of results would guarantee Canada finishes in one of the top three spots.
Canada is unbeaten in nine matches, with five wins and four draws to the Maple Leafs’ name, and the ability to secure results on the road has been key. They picked up a win in Honduras and draws on the road against the United States, Mexico and Jamaica. Add those to a 4W-0L-1D home record, including a famous 2-1 home win over Mexico, and the points have come in bunches.
MORE: How the World Cup intercontinental playoffs work
The schedule sees three of its last five matches coming on the road, so Canada will need the road warrior mentality moving forward. Its two remaining home matches against the United States and Jamaica will be critical.
Canadian fans will be hoping the results from its last two matches in this window — including that home match against the USA — will allow it to control its own destiny heading into the final set of qualifiers.
Scenarios to clinch a World Cup berth in this window:
????????
– Two U.S. wins
– Two Panama losses
– Max of 2 points for CRC????????
– Two Canada wins
– Max of 1 point for Panama
– Max of 3 pts for CRC— Paul Carr (@PaulCarr) January 28, 2022
CONCACAF standings tiebreakers
There’s always a possibility that the CONCACAF standings are extra tight and that Canada is tied on points with one or more of the other nations in the qualifying standings. Tiebreakers would come into play.
Here are the standings tiebreakers for teams even on points:
- Goal difference in all group matches
- Most goals scored in all group matches
- Most points obtained from group matches between teams concerned
- Goal difference from group matches between teams concerned
- Most goals scored in group matches between teams concerned
- Goals scored away from home (if two teams are tied)
- Discipline points (based on yellow/red cards)
- Drawing of lots by FIFA
The Qatar World Cup will be played from Nov. 21 to Dec. 18, 2022.
