Indian economy to see 9.5 pc growth this fiscal: Former CEA Arvind Virmani

The Indian economy is likely to register a growth of 9.5 per cent in this financial year, former chief economic adviser Arvind Virmani said on Tuesday. Addressing a virtual event organised by industry body PHDCCI, Virmani said that government expenditure and exports have peaked, but so far private consumption has not recovered due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The current financial year’s growth will be higher and close to 9.5 per cent. And this decade’s (FY21-FY30) average growth will be 7.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent,” he said.

According to the recent government data, the Indian economy is estimated to grow at 9.2 pc in 2021-22, as against 7.3 pc contraction in 2020-21.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has lowered the growth projection for the current financial year to 9.5 per cent, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth of 9.5 per cent in 2021, and 8.5 per cent in the next year.

The eminent economist said that India’s GDP growth is now positive, but job growth is lagging.

Stressing that Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are critical for inclusive growth, he said that modern MSMEs should have full opportunity to compete with the corporate sector.

Virmani noted that COVID-19 pandemic hit economic recovery and pushed for tax reforms. GST council seems focused on short-term revenue maximization, he said.

“Revenue negative GST simplification needed to provide a consumption stimulus to the economy, and quickly restore lost jobs and wages,” he said.