While the worst January was in 2008 when the index lost 16.3% of its value amid the global financial crisis, monthly returns have been negative in all the last four years as well.
The average monthly return from Nifty in the last 20 years has been a negative 0.9%.
In the last two decades, 2012 has been the best January month for the index when it surprised with a 12.4% return.
Nifty also has a habit of starting the first trading day of the new calendar year on a positive note as returns have been positive 16 out of 20 times.
After hitting a fresh lifetime high of 18,887.60 on December 1, Nifty ended with a monthly loss of 3.5%, its biggest fall since 2014.
Will bulls break the jinx in 2023?
Since June 2022 lows, Nifty has not corrected for more than three consecutive weeks in a row, followed by a new high in the following month. After the index formed a bullish piercing line candlestick on the weekly chart, technical analysts expect the rhythm to be maintained.
“We reiterate our structural positive stance and expect the index to gradually head towards an all time high of 18900 in coming weeks, any dips would remain a buying opportunity with key support placed at 17800 levels,”
said.
Nifty rollover data shows that traders carried forward bullish derivative bets into the New Year on expiry of the December contracts last week. About 79.2% of Nifty futures contracts were rolled over to January, which indicates that traders are expecting the market to rise.
Although a majority of analysts believe that Nifty will end 2023 above 20,000-mark, as shown in an ETMarkets Poll earlier, the beginning could remain volatile amid global woes over recession, Covid spread in China, rising uncertainty about US Fed’s tightening stance and not-so-cheap valuation in Indian equities.
Among domestic factors that would play a deciding role in determining the mood of the market in January would be auto sales numbers, Q2 earnings season and expectations from the Union Budget which would be presented in the Parliament on February 1. Market participants would also be eyeing the outcome of the US Fed meeting, which would also be known on the midnight of February 1 and 2.
“We believe that value buying is the theme of 2023, with a focus on domestically oriented sectors and buying on dips. Fair valuation, steady earnings, and a robust demand scenario will be the cutting parameters,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research at
.
(With data inputs from Ritesh Presswala)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
