NEW DELHI: Congress has three state governments as junior allies of regional parties, one more than full-fledged governments of its own, in what is evidence of the party’s rapidly shrinking national footprint and dwindling popular support.
Congress is a supporting party in the JMM government in Jharkhand and Uddhav Thackeray regime in Maharashtra. It is a political ally of DMK in Tamil Nadu but is not part of the ministry headed by CM MK Stalin. In stark contrast, the party has its own governments only in Chhattisgarh (headed by Bhupesh Baghel) and Rajasthan (under Ashok Gehlot).
The party’s minimal role in governance across the country has been worsened by its rout in the recent five state polls, where it had nursed strong hopes of wresting Uttarakhand and Goa from BJP, and retaining Punjab. With a small bunch of 53 MPs in Lok Sabha and falling numbers in Rajya Sabha, Congress’s negotiating power with the government and role in lawmaking is at its lowest ebb in decades.
After Congress’ fortunes started nosediving in 2014, the party did manage a second life of sorts when it swept the December 2018 polls in Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan. However, it has been downhill since then, with the party also losing its government in Bhopal and the alliance regime with JD(S) in Bengaluru, to mass defection of MLAs to BJP. It has since been on a losing spree. While it came close to unseating BJP in Haryana, it faltered in its best chance of hitting a winning shot — Kerala.
The worst fear among insiders now is that AAP’s victory in Punjab and its renewed ambition to dent Congress to replace it in the long-term as a national alternative, will come at the cost of Congress’ prospects against BJP in the end-year polls in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. The party fancies its chances in Gujarat where it gave BJP a scare in the last polls, and in Himachal where it recently swept the LS and assembly bypolls.
It would put immense pressure on CMs Gehlot and Baghel to return the governments in late 2023, a task with heavy odds given Congress’s poor record in saving incumbent governments.
The growing fear in Congress is that it may not have a state government by the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. If that happens, it will not only be politically embarrassing, but also demoralising for the cadre which has been looking at the leadership to extricate the party from the morass it has fallen into.
