“We show that by the end of the 21st century, v. vulnificus infections will extend further northwards but how far north will depend upon the degree of further warming and therefore on our future greenhouse gas emissions.
“If emissions are kept low, then cases may extend northwards only as far as Connecticut.
“If emissions are high, infections are predicted to occur in every US state on the east coast. By the end of the 21st century we predict that around 140 to 200 v. vulnificus infections may be reported each year.”
The research team suggests that individuals and health authorities could be warned in real time about particularly risky environmental conditions through marine or vibrio-specific early warning systems.