CMIE data shows that the average weekly index of consumer sentiments in the three weeks that ended on January 9, 16 and 23 was 59.9 and the 30-day moving average of the index of consumer sentiments as of January 23, 2022, stood at 61, higher than November 2021 when it stood at 60.3.
“We call the recovery seen in the early data of January as hesitant because after that 6.9% increase in the week ended January 2, the weekly growth rate fell to 2.1% in the next week and then by 3% erasing much of the gains made in the preceding two weeks,” CMIE said in its weekly labour market analysis.
According to CMIE, while the level of the index in the latest week ended January 23 and also the 30-day moving average are impressive at 61.2 and 61 respectively, the week-to-week variations reflect some uncertainty of the January recovery.
“The index of consumer sentiments in January is expected to cross its December level of 57.6 and and could possibly cross its peak level of 60.3 reached in November,” it said, adding that the index still has a long way to go before it reaches its pre-Covid levels of around 108
The data further showed that the index of current economic conditions went up by 6.3% to 58.2 and the index of consumer expectations grew by a modest 2.5% to 60.9.
“A faster improvement in current economic conditions with a slightly higher confidence in the future as is seen in the weekly sentiments data for January 2022 is a good development. Its stride needs to be bigger and a little more confident,” CMIE added.
