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Goldman Sachs expects oil prices hitting $100 per barrel in the second half of this year, citing a lower than expected hit to demand from the Omicron coronavirus variant coupled with increased supply disruptions and OPEC+ shortfalls.
“This has kept the global oil market in a larger deficit than even our above consensus forecast,” Goldman said in a note dated Monday.
Brent crude futures were trading around $87 a barrel on Tuesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures at $85 a barrel.
Goldman sees Brent prices at $90 per barrel in the first quarter of 2022, $95 in the second quarter and $100 per barrel in the last two quarters.
The investment bank raised its Brent oil price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to $96, $105 per barrel from $81, $85 per barrel, respectively.
“Importantly, we are not forecasting Brent trading above $100 per barrel on an argument of running out of oil as the shale resources is still large and elastic,” Goldman added.
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