Keeping roads safe during early-season cold events is a challenge for transportation agencies but … [+]
With freeze watches and warnings across much of the country this week—as far west as Colorado and as far south as Florida—cold weather is on the mind of many businesses. The winter weather outlook is showing an increasing chance for additional early season, winter cold for December, particularly across the Central and Eastern portions of the country. This could be the coldest start to winter in the last decade. While we know there is concern with the limited natural gas supplies and what that might mean for winter heating bills, early cold weather is also a concern for overall business continuity, public safety and supply chain efficiencies.
One of the biggest challenges for businesses impacted by weather is resource planning. Most agencies and companies purchase supplies or stock reserves well before an official winter weather outlook. So, when an early impact is forecasted it is likely to cause more than “typical” winter disruptions.
Cold and winter-related outages can be one of the more difficult ‑ and dangerous ‑ safety challenges for utilities. The ability for customers to tolerate a winter power outage is much lower because colder temperatures are harder to compensate for than extremely high temperatures. For example, in the summer, people can head to pools or beaches for relief, as well as use fans, there is not a similar solution in the winter. In fact, new research has found carbon monoxide poisoning is a dangerous consequence of winter outages as people look for alternative options to warm homes. An outage prediction solution based on weather intelligence can help utilities understand potential risk related to wet snow events, ice accretion or extreme wind events. This gives utilities the insight to prepare and mobilize crews in advance, so outages are minimized and shortened.
Keeping roads safe during early-season cold events is also a challenge for transportation agencies but salt supply and staffing shortages will add additional hurdles. Across the country, staffing shortages are plaguing many transportation departments, and from Maine, to Missouri, plow-driver staff is down 30 percent from where it needs to be. The forecasted early cold puts more pressure on agencies to quickly fill open positions for drivers.
Salt reserves are also going to be top of mind for transportation agencies with early cold events. Transportation agencies typically order their salt supplies well before the winter season so it will be important to keep an eye on forecasts to determine how to manage and allocate that resource. Icy road conditions can happen quickly in early-season cold weather and impact certain stretches of roadways, but not others, so using weather insights to monitor subsoil temperatures across roadways can help agencies best prepare for icy conditions. Often in December the subsurface temperatures will keep pavement temperatures warm. With an early season snow event, the air and surface temperatures may be cold, but there may be a warming effect from the subsurface pavement temperatures, leading to icy pavement. Using hyperlocal weather forecasts to drive decision making can ensure transportation agencies are prepared for cold weather and mobilize crews quickly.
Resource planning is also important for air travel operations. The airline industry is anticipating a strong holiday season with air travel levels expected to be surpass 2019 levels, and airport operations teams need to prepare, much like the transportation agencies. While the summer was filled with canceled flights, extreme weather, and pilot shortages, the cold weather brings its own set of challenges to the operations teams. Preparations for winter equipment and supplies are already in motion, but these teams need to be reviewing budgets and resource allocation and checking to ensure deicing solution storage is accessible and there is adequate supply. Having extra crews and contractors on call for snow clearing and deicing efforts will be critical in December.
Of course, safety is of the utmost priority year-round. In addition to traditional outside projects, such as road work, landscaping and ongoing utility management, supply chain disruptions are prompting other outside work to continue if possible. For example, a volatile building supply chain may have construction crews pushing to finish projects during a colder-than-average December forecast. Understanding the severity of the cold on crews working outdoors, even for a small amount of time, allows for precautions, including providing proper outerwear and adapting crews’ work hours, when possible, to avoid frost bite potential.
Municipalities and the public also need to stay aware of potential cold snaps. There are plenty of up-to-date forecasts—from government, media, and private weather companies—along with mobile weather apps, online weather portals, mobile alerts, and the vigilance of weather experts to keep the public and businesses weather aware. A crucial component to keeping people and assets safe is having a plan before a weather event and knowing when it is time to put the plan in motion. That is one of the benefits of having a long-range winter outlook. The science of meteorology and the computing capability to blend multiple weather models has advanced to a point that there is high confidence in the outlook and provides businesses the capability to plan and prepare. That is not to say that the models – and the forecasts – may change over the course of winter. As a meteorologist, I am constantly reminded by weather events that it is a chaotic variable and forecasts constantly evolve.
Whether it is a business, operation or public entity, constant and consistent communication with stakeholders is critical for any weather event. Having a vetted plan and a confident decision tree that is flexible based on new forecast information is the best path for managing winter weather impacts. For those businesses or municipalities who use a risk communicator with enterprise weather services, the impact of weather is even further tailored to the weather risks of the business. For example, with an early forecast of cold, a risk communicator would evaluate and advise a business or customer based on the pre-established thresholds specific to safety, operations, or efficiency. Through either path, keeping a close eye on the forecast, the potential risks on business continuity, public safety and supply chain efficiencies can be minimized in December and beyond.
