Here’s The ‘Centaurus’ Covid-19 Coronavirus

While it ain’t the “Centaurus” of Covid-19 attention right now, the new BA.2.75 Omicron subvariant does deserve to be closely monitored. This so-called “Centaurus” subvariant, first detected in India, has now appeared in at least 10 other countries including the U.S. And there are eight-not-so-simple reasons why the BA.2.75 could potentially be even more concerning than the already concerning BA.5 subvariant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Before you run around the room flapping your arms in a panic, though, the emphasis here is on the word “potentially” as opposed to “definitely” or “fer sure.” Plus, public health authorities will never say, “OK, everyone, time to panic now.”

Speaking of public health authorities, guess who’s now monitoring the BA.2.75? The World Health Organization, that’s who. If you look at the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants website, you’ll now find the BA.2.75 categorized as a VOC-LUM. What the VOC is a VOC-LUM? Well, it stands for Variants of Concern (VOC) lineage under monitoring, which basically means that these are offshoots of variants that have already been deemed VOCs and deserve to be closely watched. The list of VOC-LUM’s currently includes several sub-lineages of the BA.2 Omicron subvariant (that is, the BA.2.12.1, BA.2.9.1, BA.2.11, BA.2.13, and BA.2.75) along two sister lineages of the BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron subvariants (consisting of the BA.4 and BA.5).

The BA.4 and BA.5 have already proven to be twisted sister lineages. During a July 6 media briefing, the WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, mentioned that, “On Covid-19, globally reported cases have increased nearly 30% over the past two weeks. Four out of six of the WHO sub-regions saw cases increase in the last week.” Clearly, this goes against the Covid is over narrative that some have been trying to spread. The WHO Director-General then specified that “In Europe and America, BA.4 and BA.5 are driving waves,” before mentioning the Centaurus: “In countries like India a new sub lineage of BA.2.75 has also been detected, which we’re following.”

The BA.4 and BA.5 have been essentially making waves in part because they’ve been more transmissible than previous versions of the virus. However, there may be another inescapable reason: immune escape. Mutations may have made the BA.2.75 less recognizable by any immune protection that you may already have from either vaccination against Covid-19 or previous infection. It may be a bit like your high school classmate getting so much plastic surgery that you have to ask him or her during a reunion, “hi, have we met before?” Immune escape is when changes in the virus can allow it to escape or evade your existing immune defenses.

This greater transmissibility and immune escape potential are what prompted Eric Topol, MD, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, to call the BA.5 “the worst version of the virus that we’ve seen.” As I wrote for Forbes on Sunday, such a description is sort of like calling Transformers: The Last Knight the worst of the Transformers movies. After all, the past two and a half years have presented a bleepy menu of bad SARS-CoV-2 versions.

Well, if BA.5 already looks very different from earlier versions of the virus like the BA.1 and BA.2, the “Centaurus” subvariant takes things eight steps further. It’s not clear who came up with the nickname Centaurus, which presumable has to do with centaurs. A centaur is a creature that’s half human and half horse. It’s a mythical creature in case you are wondering whether this description matches that of your boss. But nevertheless such a moniker could potentially apply to something that looks quite different from anything that you’ve seen before. The following tweet from Topol pointed to just how different the BA.2.75 looks compared to the BA.5:

Topol included a tweet thread from Ulrich Elling, PhD, a researcher at the Institute of Molecular Biotechnology in Vienna, Austria, that showed which parts of the BA.2.75 virus’s spike protein are affected by these mutations. In his tweet thread, Elling stated that “The number of 8 additional mutations in BA.2.75 is remarkable, Delta had 8 in spike in total. 3 mutations can make a huge difference (BA.5). Thus the 11 Mutations distinct between BA.5 and BA.2.75 could allow for yet another wave as BA.5 immunity might not protect,” as you can see here:

As you can see, Elling described his thread as “HIGHLY SPECULTIVE.” It’s highly speculative as well since more data and info are needed before making more definitive conclusions. Just because the BA.2.75 is different doesn’t mean that it will become a major problem. In order to overtake other versions of the virus, the BA.2.75 needs to be more fit than the BA.5 and other variants in some way, such as being more transmissible.

And the actual transmissibility of the BA.2.75 has yet to be determined. There have been some suggestions that the BA.2.75 may be more transmissible. For example, Mike Honey, founder of Manga Solutions a data visualization company in Melbourne, Australia, posted the following graph showing how the detection of BA.2.75 has increased in India, where this subvariant was first detected:

Take such information with a fanny pack of salt for now though until more data and studies emerge. The BA.2.75 has already appeared in at least 10 different countries including Australia, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S. So it had spread at least to some degree, although it’s not yet clear whether the BA.2.75 will have what it takes to overtake the BA.5. The BA.5 is the current dominant, alpha-dog version of the virus in many countries including the U.S, where it now comprises an estimated 53.6% of reported Covid-19 cases, according to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

It’s also not yet clear whether the BA.2.75 may cause worse Covid-19, as Soumya Swaminathan, MD, Chief Scientist for the WHO, emphasized in the video accompanying the following tweet:

Again, about the BA.2.75 much to learn we have, as Yoda might say. So don’t jump to conclusions yet about what this subvariant may end up doing. The BA.2.75 could go the way of many reality TV show characters, making a little bit of news momnetarily before fading back into obscurity. Alternatively, this variant could eventually displace others as the new alpha-dog of variants. Or something in between could end up happening. Regardless, the emergence of the BA.2.75 shouldn’t change what you should already be doing, with an emphasis on the word “should.” It’s another reminder that the Covid-19 pandemic is definitely not over and that Covid-19 precautions are still needed, despite what some people, politicians, your Uncle Fred, that person at the smoothie bar, or those anonymous social media accounts may try to tell you. While the new BA.2.75 may or may not become the “Centaurus” of Covid-19 attention in the coming weeks or months, the key is to stop the horse (or half horse) before it has left the barn and prevent Covid-19 surges before they occur.