A map of severe weather reports in the U.S. between January 1-30, 2022.
Data: IEM/SPC | Map: Dennis Mersereau
The first month of 2022 certainly saw less severe weather than the last month of 2021, but this January wasn’t exactly a quiet one. Dozens of tornadoes ripped through the southeast, damaging homes and businesses as they tore through communities across the region. Here’s a look back at what we saw this month, and a preview of what to expect in the coming weeks.
It seems counterintuitive that severe weather is common in January, but the same winter storms that bring heavy snow and ice to northern states often sweep severe thunderstorms across portions of the south. Even so, this January saw below-normal severe weather across the United States.
The Storm Prediction Center only received 213 reports of severe weather—tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds—for the month through the evening of January 30th. There’s a slight chance the number could tick up a bit as severe storms are possible in a small portion of southern Texas on Monday. Regardless, the monthly count is sure to fall short of the average 382 reports of severe weather we’ve seen in January since 2012.
2022 started with a spate of tornadoes across Kentucky, which was still reeling from several deadly, long-track tornadoes just a few weeks earlier. The outbreak on New Year’s Day saw ten tornadoes touch down across central Kentucky, most of which were weak and didn’t lead to any injuries or fatalities. A round of severe thunderstorms produced multiple tornadoes across the Houston metro area and in northwestern Louisiana on January 8th.
Several more episodes of severe weather contributed to the preliminary total of 48 tornadoes for the month. This is close to the 52 tornadoes an average January has seen over the past decade.
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather climatology for the end of February.
NOAA/SPC
What can we expect heading into February? Even though we’re still deep in the throes of winter, the first rumblings of spring’s warmth start to stir across the southern states in February. More frequent intrusions of warm, humid air from the Gulf will afford winter storms more opportunities to produce severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather climatology shows that strong thunderstorms start to become more common across the Deep South toward the end of February, with a bullseye developing over parts of Mississippi and Alabama. This sets the stage for intense springtime outbreaks that tend to target this region come March and April.
An active pattern building over the eastern two-thirds of the United States for the first week of February could bring several opportunities for strong to severe thunderstorms to sweep across parts of the southeastern states. This active pattern could continue through the middle of the month.
