Northern Lights And Solar Flares In This Week’s Space Weather Forecast

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While storms are wreaking havoc across Europe and North America this week, it’s also been a period of high activity on the sun with effects that could be seen here on Earth.

The side of the sun currently facing us is sporting a gargantuan sunspot labeled AR2936 that is “big enough to swallow our planet five times over,” according to Dr. Tony Phillips at Spaceweather.com.

Sunspots are basically huge pockets of intense magnetic activity on the surface of the sun that will often erupt, releasing bursts of energy in the form of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

We are likely to see at least some low-powered C-class flares from the region over the early part of this week. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center puts the chance of a moderate M-class flare at 40 percent and the odds of a powerful X-class blast at 10 percent.

Flares travel at the speed of light, meaning they arrive at Earth within about eight to nine minutes where they can sometimes interfere with radio communications. CMEs, on the other hand, travel more slowly and take a couple of days to arrive at our planet. It’s the charged particles from CMEs that trigger auroras (also known as Northern or Southern Lights) when they collide with Earth’s magnetosphere.

CMEs can also mess with satellites and even electrical systems on Earth when the burst is strong enough.

On Sunday, that huge sunspot AR2936 released a CME during a four-hour-long moderate M1-class flare. This fully charged wave of energetic particles is now heading our way and Phillips expects it to arrive on Wednesday.

There’s no need to panic, as it is only expected to potentially produce “moderately-strong G2-class geomagnetic storms.”

“During such storms, auroras can spill out of the Arctic Circle into northern-tier US states such as New York, Minnesota, and Washington,” Phillips writes.

If you miss this particular light show, or it doesn’t materialize, there should be plenty more opportunities. The current solar cycle in on the rise, meaning that the chance of more sunspots, flares and CMEs will only increase over the next few years.

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