Industry insiders estimate the dispatches of cars, utility vehicles and vans from factories – which automakers report as sales – to total about 350,000 units this month, generating more than ₹25,000 crore of business.
The projected numbers are 81% more than the dispatches in September last year, when a component shortage had started affecting production. In the past five years, the sales in September have been between 185,000 and 292,000 units. The previous peak of monthly wholesale volume was 341,371 units in July this year.
For automakers, the festive season is key, as it accounts for 25-30% of their annual sales.
An all-time high wholesale number in September is expected to translate into record high retail sales in October, as demand remains strong with nearly a million customers waiting to take delivery of their vehicles.
Passenger vehicle makers had already dispatched about 670,000 vehicles during the first two months of this quarter. Another about 350,000 units in September would take the total to top the 1-million-unit mark for the first time for the industry in a quarter.
Maruti Suzuki senior executive director Shashank Srivastava said demand remained strong, even as an improvement in component supplies helped the industry step up production. “While not definitive, it is likely that the current month can surpass the previous highest of 342,000 recorded in July,” Srivastava said.
As of mid-September, the industry was sitting on cumulative bookings of around 900,000 to 1 million units. The orderbook of India’s largest car maker, Maruti Suzuki, was 445,000 units.
The top five carmakers are expected to contribute around 80-83% of total volume of the industry in September. Maruti Suzuki’s share is estimated at 42-43%.
Shailesh Chandra, MD at Tata Motors’ PV business unit, said there were no major concerns on demand ahead of the festive season, but “what happens after the festive season is still unclear”.
