Pre Budget: ET Online Survey: From Covid to cronyism & EV to economy, the things on top of pre-Budget India’s mind

Just as India was showing several clear signs of a turnaround, Omicron entered the scene to dampen the mood and clutter the mind again. In an attempt to capture the essence of the ongoing public debate in the nation caught in a renewed tussle between hope and fear, ET.com recently did a survey of around 2,000 people. Here follows a round-up of what we found.

Can the economy fight off this fresh threat? 40.7% of those surveyed thought Covid uncertainty would be the biggest roadblock for the Indian economy in near to mid term. Persistent inflation and falling purchasing power — the twin hurdles to India’s consumption comeback — were on top of 21.1% and 16.8% respondents’ minds.

Over a fifth (21.5%) of participants said that the govt’s failure to walk its reform talk was the biggest hindrance to an economic recovery.

Things likely to matter most
To a related question, as many as 41.8% of those surveyed responded that the govt’s ability to walk the reform talk is the factor that will matter most for the economy at this juncture. 24.6% participants wanted govt to consult properly before bringing laws, 18.7% thought India should do away with trade barriers, and 14.8% said the current govt should put less stress on winning elections.

At a time when the threat of Omicron looms large over the country, more than half (51%) of those surveyed say India is better prepared than the last time to handle any fresh Covid wave(s). According to 8.1% respondents, India took its lesson well from the devastating second wave and is now fully prepared for any subsequent wave.

19.7% participants are not satisfied with India’s Covid preparedness, while 21.2% are unsure about what trajectory Omicron — and by extension the economy — might take.

Some points of concern
The informal economy’s continuing travails are the reason why over a third (34%) of respondents think it’s too early to celebrate a GDP turnaround despite latest numbers pointing towards a possible recovery. More than a fourth (almost 26%) say last quarter’s GDP figures are just a function of base effect, while 24.8% underline the uneven nature of the recovery seen so far.

On lack of jobs, one of Indian economy’s longest-standing weak points, 33.5% participants thought it has to do with the failure of the country’s education system. 28.3% said the root of the problem lay in the country’s overdependence on government jobs, while over a fourth (25.1%) put the blame on half-hearted government policy.

Lack of jobs is also the biggest disappointment for the country’s middle class, the survey found. This category’s second and third biggest grouses, as found by the survey, are poor public infrastructure (28.4%) and the delay in tax reform (28.2%).

Of Bulls & Bears
All these stumbling blocks apparently do little to dent the Indian market’s prospects, though. More than half of the total survey participants believe that India’s stock market bull run is going to be a long-lasting one, Covid or no Covid. On the other hand, 14.7% believe the opposite — that the rally is on its last legs.

Omicron is a factor to watch out for in terms of stock market trajectory for just over 19% of respondents. Interestingly, for 15.8% of respondents, this rally “will be on till Modi is there”.

About the rising allegation of increasing cronyism in politics and business in India, 24.6% respondents believe there is no truth in it. On the other hand, another 24.6% of them say it is now a widespread occurrence. A major chunk (27%) is of the view that every government rewards its own folks.

Two hot-button issues
India’s Net Zero goal, currently among the most hot-button issues in policy debates, is a most practical target, according to almost 35% of survey participants. Those who thought 2070 too early constituted 16.5% of respondents, while around 20% of them found it to be too late.

The question that drew the comparatively most unequivocal response was the one pertaining to EVs, with a sweeping 62.7% respondents saying that India’s EV journey will get the most boost from more subsidies & incentives than the ones currently on offer. A significant chunk, on the other hand, backed setting a statutory final date on ICE (petrol & diesel) cars.