The three regions: Punjab is divided into three regions according to the flow of its rivers –– Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. Majha is the border region between Ravi and Beas rivers, Doaba is the fertile agrarian belt between Sutlej and Beas, and Malwa is the largest region of Punjab in the south. The oft-repeated saying in the state is whoever wins Malwa rules Punjab. It is here that AAP has taken a pole position. In its first election in Punjab in 2017, AAP had won 18 of its 20 seats from Malwa. It has strengthened its position in the region by declaring Bhagwant Singh Mann (who hails from Sangrur in Malwa region) as the chief ministerial candidate. Malwa has 69 seats, Majha 25 and Doaba 23. Congress had won 77 seats in 2017 with a majority of 40 in the Malwa region.
Election issues: Unemployment, education, drug menace, illegal sand mining and sacrilege incidents are the main election issues in Punjab. AAP has been promising its Delhi education model for Punjab if it is voted to power. This is proving to be attractive to the youth which see it as their ticket to entrepreneurship and fulfilling the immigration dream. AAP’s poll promises of free electricity, Rs 1,000 to women above 18 years and nasha-mukt Punjab coupled with the general attitude of people “kuch nawaa try karaan” (Let’s try something new), will see the Delhi-centric party emerging as a credible force in Punjab politics. The incumbent Congress, which is trying to cash in on Scheduled Caste votebank by pushing the common man chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi as its trump card, is desperately trying to keep its flock together and promising jobs and freedom from the drug menace. It, however, has not been exactly convincing in dissociating itself from corruption charges especially with the arrest of Channi’s nephew by the Enforcement Directorate. SAD, which had ruled the state for 10 years from 2007-2017, may just spring a surprise as it is actively wooing the conservative Panthic votes in the wake of sacrilege incidents in the state. Sukhbir Singh Badal has positioned the party as the only persuasive seeker of Sikh community’s vote.
The three farm legislation: The run-up to the Punjab assembly elections saw the biggest climbdown of the Modi government when it decided to repeal the contentious farm legislation. Though, by repealing the laws the Modi government hoped to take the wind out of the Congress and AAP’s campaign, the farmers remain opposed to the BJP in Punjab. About 22 farmers unions formed a united political front –– Samyukt Samaj Morcha –– and are fighting the Punjab elections on farmers’ issues. While the Election Commission recognised the party, the candidates did not get the party symbol in time and are fighting as independents. However, ground reports show that the candidates have been unable to get much traction in their constituencies which are largely in the Malwa region.
Dera politics: A unique aspect of Punjab is the respect that Deras or socio-religious organisations command. They have a massive following, especially among the lower middle class, as people flock to Babas to seek direction in life and to solve basic problems. Three major Deras –– Radha Soami Satsang Beas (near Amritsar), Dera Sach Khand or Dera Ballan (near Jallandhar) and Dera Sacha Sauda (near Sirsa) –– set the political tone of the election by indicating to the followers who they should vote for. The meetings in the last week of campaigning when political bigwigs meet the Dera heads are a clear indication of their influence over Punjab voters.
