Dalal Street believes that a large part of the earnings growth in Q4 would be led by auto and BFSI companies while metals and oil and gas will be the prime drags. Consumer staples, IT services and pharma companies may report modest YoY growth in net income.
Kotak Institutional Equities expects banks under its coverage to report a 45% year-on-year (YoY) earnings growth while its forecast for IT services’ quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) revenue growth ranges from a decline of 2.1% to a growth of 2.3% across its coverage universe.
Motilal Oswal has predicted that its auto basket is likely to report a 70% YoY jump in earnings driven by Tata Motors, excluding which the sector is still likely to clock a solid 34% YoY growth.
Across sectors, there are at least 23 companies that are likely to report more than 100% YoY growth in profit during the quarter.
Motilal expects oil marketing company BPCL’s net profit to grow 201.5% YoY to Rs 7,187.7 crore. Kotak sees the fuel retailer’s PAT to more than double at Rs 4,628 crore on the back of a further recovery in auto-fuel marketing margins.
Amara Raja Batteries may report a 153% jump in Q4 profit on the back of a 536 bps improvement in its EBITDA margin due to operating leverage benefit and cost-control measures.
Analysts are betting that Apollo Tyres will report 3x growth in net profit led by expansion in EBITDA margin amid price hikes. Similarly, CEAT’s profit is also seen growing 3x on price hikes and raw material-related tailwinds.
Samvardhana Motherson Sumi’s quarterly net is seen growing 370% by Kotak to Rs 572.4 crore and sales by 21.5% to Rs 20,879.5 crore. “We estimate consolidated EBITDA margin to improve by 50 bps QoQ to 8.3%, led by a sharp decline in energy prices, resulting in lower other expenses in 4QFY23,” Kotak said.
Godrej Properties, whose shares are down around one-third in the last one year, is seen reporting a 163% jump in its quarterly profit.
Motilal predicts that Oberoi Realty’s profit will grow 986% YoY to Rs 2,520 crore on account of profit recognition at 360 West post the settlement with the JV partner. The brokerage also sees Indian Hotels reporting a 327% jump in its quarterly profit to Rs 265 crore.
Three PSU banks that are likely to report more than 100% growth in profit are Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank and Punjab National Bank. BoB’s PAT is seen growing around 140% led by strong revenue growth and stable costs. “We expect loan growth to be solid at 15% YoY leading to ~30% YoY NII growth,” Kotak said. The brokerage sees Canara Bank’s profit doubling and PNB’s profit growing 4 times.
Private sector lender Ujjivan Small Finance Bank’s PAT is also seen doubling to Rs 259 crore.
Kotak is of the belief that Dr Reddy’s Laboratories will report 11-times jump in profit on the back of EBITDA margin improvement of 500 bps in Q4.
Other stocks in the list include Jyothy Labs, Lupin, Barbeque Nation, Narayana Hrudayalaya, Rainbow Children’s Medicare, Just Dial, Brigade Enterprises, Sobha, Bharti Airtel and GMR Airports.
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