Simulate With What You’ve Got

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One of the most difficult things for a business is forecasting. Trying to figure out where the market will be in six months, and how your customers will react to quickly changing conditions, is an essential — yet difficult — function of senior management.

In some senses, operating in the top ranks of business requires an operational mindset similar to being in a remote environment — like a spacecraft. Forbes recently spoke with Apollo 13 astronaut Fred Haise about how to simulate with what you’ve got. After participating in that famous 1970 spaceflight that saw teams deal with an adverse incident close to the moon, Haise remained with NASA and is also well-remembered for his work with the shuttle landing program.

The occasion of Haise’s interview was the publication of his memoir, Never Panic Early, written with Bill Moore and available now from Penguin Random House. In the coming days, we’ll share five lessons that he learned from that mission. The first lesson, to never panic early, is available at this link.

The space shuttle was the first spacecraft that was designed with many of the same aerodynamics as an airplane, and what caught folks’ attention in the 1970s was its capability to land on a conventional runway. (Up to then, spacecraft capsules landed in the ocean or on land, depending on the type.)

Certifying the shuttle for flight, however, required a rigorous set of tests to ensure the astronauts didn’t encounter any surprises during the unpowered glide to landing. NASA commissioned a full-scale prototype, called Enterprise after the Star Trek ship. It wasn’t a real space shuttle, in the sense that it didn’t have engines or a thermal protection system (heat shield).

But that was all right, as Enterprise would only operate in the Earth’s atmosphere. There were more than a dozen tests including captive flights on a specially modified 747, but it’s the five free flights the program is best remembered for. The 747 would bring the orbiter up to a high altitude and then release it, allowing for Enterprise to glide to a desert landing at California’s Edwards Air Force Base.

Haise, who copiloted three of the five free flights in 1977 and participated throughout the program, remembered how he piloted the prototype with care because he knew it didn’t have a backup. “I was worried if I crashed it, [President] Jimmy Carter would think that’s the end of the road. So that was a concern in my mind,” he said.

Simulating with what was available in 1977 was a far different experience than today, in some senses. Today flight simulators, artificial intelligence and advanced modeling allow manufacturers and pilots to get a real sense of what to expect with new prototypes. That said, flights are flights because you never know what will happen in the real world. So that’s why flight testing is still performed, and it brings to mind what happened to Haise and his pilot, Gordon Fullerton, during the final test flight of Enterprise on Oct. 26, 1977.

The crew discovered that the control system had a tricky time lag between when they told the shuttle to do an action, and when the pilot responded. The oscillation produced could have been hazardous during landing, and required a software filter (borrowed from the F-8) to address this problem before the shuttle Columbia launched to space in 1981.

Haise emphasized, however, that the program met all major goals because the teams simulated with the equipment that was available, they listened to the experts, and they put experienced pilots at the helm when the shuttle flew free. The program certainly tested technology to its limits, including an early effort in allowing multiple computers to work together on the shuttle (a challenge in an era where computers were much less powerful and adaptive than today.)

Despite technical issues, the approach and landing tests finished early and the only major safety problem encountered was on that last landing, Haise said. “It was going pretty well,” he said. “The only problem was that oscillation on the last landing of the runway.”

In the book, Haise adds he was embarrassed to bounce that final landing given that thousands of spectators were in attendance, but added a few pages later a list of honors that the piloting team (four individuals) received from NASA, the United States Air Force and the Society of Experimental Test Pilots for their pioneering work.

But to Haise, the more valuable part of the approach and landing tests was readying for the space shuttle’s operations before taking on the extra challenge of operating beyond Earth’s atmosphere. “This counted to have exposure, if nothing else,” he said of the help the landing program gave to teams preparing for spaceflight.

In Part 3, we will discuss managing large teams to solve critical problems.

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