Sorry, Jeremy, but if inflation does plunge this year it won’t be thanks to you | Personal Finance | Finance

He never wastes an opportunity to remind us that inflation will fall sharply on his watch, and of course that’s welcome news.

Given the pain inflicted by today’s cost-of-living crisis, we all need some light at the end of the tunnel.

The problem is that Hunt is just a bit too desperate to secure the plaudits when it happens, because they don’t belong to him.

If inflation does fall as anticipated, he will have played a very minor role in the process.

He’ll pretend otherwise.

In last month’s Spring Budget, Hunt gleefully quoted The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which says inflation will fall to just 2.9 percent by the end of this year.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said that today’s inflationary spike is only temporary and consumer prices will rapidly decline.

Hunt was swift to take the credit, issuing a press release boasting that “By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone.”

I’ve been getting a lot of releases like that, lately.

Falling inflation will be good for almost everybody, as millions face a stark choice between heating and eating.

It will come as a mighty relief to hard-pressed mortgage borrowers, as falling interest rates may spare us a full-blown house price crash.

While savings rates will also slide, inflation won’t erode the value of our cash deposits at today’s dizzying rate.

The stock market may boom again, boosting the value of everyone’s pensions and Isas.

Falling inflation will be great.

No wonder Hunt is so keen to grab the glory. There’s an election due soon, with next autumn the most likely date, and he wants voters to think kindly of him.

He’s a politician. Claiming credit for positive events beyond his control comes as second nature.

We’ll cheerfully blame him for everything that goes wrong, so why not?

Rishi Sunak’s government has set itself five tasks for this year. The very first is halving inflation. The others are growing the economy, reducing national debt, cutting NHS waiting lists and introducing new laws to stop small boats.

All five have the virtue of simplicity. We know what they entail, and we know how to measure them.

Yet they’re not all easily achievable, especially the one about stopping small boats.

READ MORE: Lock up your cash now – today’s 4.60% savings rates look ‘unbeatable’

By contrast, halving inflation looks like a done deal. If we believe the OBR, an even bigger drop is already baked in.

Inflation stood at 10.4 percent in February. If it does fall to 2.9 percent by December the percentage drop will be 72 percent.

That’s almost three quarters!

When that happy day comes, I expect to be deluged with Treasury press releases claiming it’s all down to a certain Mr Hunt.

The problem is that inflation isn’t just falling in the UK, but all over the world. It’s just fallen to five percent in the US.

Will Hunt claim the credit for that, too?

Inflation will fall everywhere as global central bankers, led by the US Federal Reserve, slash interest rates and reverse monetary tightening.

It will also drop due to the annual baseline effect, as last year’s horrific monthly spikes fall out of the figures.

The ageing population and low productivity will also play a part. Neither of these factors are down to Hunt (and if they were he’d deny it).

Nor is the economic cycle.

It still won’t stop him claiming the credit.

Hunt is like one of those strikers who taps in a shot that was going over the line anyway then runs around waving his arms as if he’d done all the hard work.

He’s done some good work since taking over from Kwasi Kwarteng, who scored the mother of own goals with last September’s mini-Budget, then pointed the finger at everyone but himself.

Yet if inflation does fall, Hunt barely deserves an assist.