Tornado Warnings Were Available In Iowa Despite A Technology Glitch

In the first weekend of March 2022, nature reminded us that tornado season typically ramps up in that time of year. Deadly EF3/EF4-rated tornadoes tore through counties near Des Moines, Iowa. Though this region experiences tornadoes, it is somewhat rare to have such high-end tornadoes there in May according to the National Weather Service (NWS). To make matters worse, these storms happened at a time when the National Weather Service experienced at technology glitch, which hampered the dissemination of warning information. I immediately saw media/social media discussions, posts, and Tweets about whether people received warnings. Let’s dig a bit deeper.

The answer is complicated but contains clarity too. CNN reported that damaged fiber optic cables in the Dallas-Ft. Worth NWS office prompted a switch to a different communication network. The satellite-based network, which can lag during busy weather events, was overwhelmed and created messaging backlogs throughout the NWS Central Region, including the NWS Des Moine office. Daryl Herzmann, a systems analyst at Iowa State University, was tweeting his observations as the event unfolded. He identified warning dissemination delays (as measured by latency) on the order of 5 minutes or so. On March 6th, he tweeted, “Still upset over this 🙁 To reiterate, this was a national NWS issue and not something within the control of NWS Omaha/Des Moines.” There were clearly issues that led to messaging delays in this window, which could have impacted information getting to the public via broadcast meteorologists or App-based messaging.

So yes at a critical time scale, there were dissemination issues. However, this is not a binary (yes/no or 0/1) situation. There were still multiple and timely warnings out there. Susan Buchanan is Director of Public Affairs with the National Weather Service. She told me, “Every tornado that touched down had an active warning that was communicated in advance of touchdown to the public.” I want to sift through the noise and immediate reactions to see where the signal is on this event and what we can learn from it.

Buchanan noted that the NWS Forecast Office in Des Moines still issued warnings with a average lead time of 20 minutes. Research studies have shown that the national average is within the 10-14 minute range. Buchanan shared something else that caught my eye. She said that the Des Moines forecast office was aware of the communication delay affecting Weather.gov and the Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA). According to Buchanan they issued, “warnings earlier than they normally would have under similar circumstances to compensate and ensure that warnings reached the public in a timely manner.” Warnings were also broadcast via NOAA Weather Radio and the Emergency Alert System without any delay.

It should also be noted that rarely do storms “come without warning” in 2022 though that is often a knee-jerk headline after many high-impact events. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued outlooks in the days before the storm (map above) indicating the potential for tornadic terms on March 5th. I also found this statement in the NWS Des Moines forecast discussion about the Saturday storm potential at least 2 days before the event – “The window for severe storms will be narrow, though in that window damaging winds and tornadoes are the main threat, especially within the vicinity of the surface low center.”

As a former American Meteorological Society (AMS) President and leader within the weather enterprise, I try to find lessons in these events. Here are my takeaways:

• There was a clear anomaly in NWS infrastructure communication infrastructure that led to dissemination delays, but the local office made adjustments, which still resulted in above-average warning lead times. In 2021, The Washington Post reported on communication infrastructure problems within the National Weather Service. The work of this agency literally affects every aspect of our lives daily and is one of the best values within the federal government. It is critical that their infrastructure is adequately supported to achieve its mission.
• There was clear meteorological understanding in the days prior to the event that tornadic storms were possible. Tornado warning information is available at many time scales (days, hours or minutes). I personally monitor all of these time scales when there is a threat, but everyone has different levels of weather attentiveness. As we move further into the Spring, review your severe weather plans and modes of receiving warning information. I strongly recommend multiple modes of alert rather than relying on a single source. Keep your WEA enabled on your phone, remember that tornado sirens are not designed to warn you inside, and have a night plan before you go to bed.