In the backdrop of the China – Russia Joint Statement being signed in Beijing on February 04, 2022, the prevalent expectation in Beijing power corridors apparently was that Moscow would only resort to aggressive posturing in order to make Kiev accede to its demands. However, the Chinese were reportedly caught unawares by the full scale military action.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, discussing Ukraine with his US counterpart Antony Blinken during a call on March 05, indicated Beijing’s preference for the crisis to be resolved only through dialogue in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter, stressing the imperative to respect all countries’ sovereignty and territorial integrity and underscoring Beijing’s support de-escalation and political settlement.
On March 07, addressing the press on the sidelines of the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress, Wang reiterated this stand, stating that China believed in upholding the UN Charter; respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries; upholding the principle of ‘indivisibility of security,’ taking into account legitimate security concerns of the parties; and, settling disputes through dialogue, focusing on long-term regional peace and stability.
Notwithstanding Beijing’s evident desire to not overtly criticize Russia’s actions, it has nevertheless acknowledged that these have triggered a humanitarian crisis, by putting forth a six-point proposal for humanitarian relief, viz. (i) Humanitarian operations must be neutral and impartial to prevent politicization of humanitarian of humanitarian issues; (ii) Help the proper resettlement of displaced persons; (iii) Protect civilians and prevent secondary humanitarian disaster; (v) Ensure the safety of foreigners in Ukraine, allow them to leave and return to their home countries safely; and (vi) Support the UN’s coordinating role in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
Beijing’s discomfiture with Moscow’s Ukraine operations was further evidenced from the fact that the Beijing-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has placed on hold all activities relating to Russia and Belarus. China is a founding member of the AIIB, wielding 26.5% of the bank’s voting power, while Russia possesses 6%. China is also concerned with the safety of its citizens in Ukraine, and has been monitoring their evacuation.
Experts believe that a weak Russia could benefit China in the former Soviet space, including in Central Asia. The erosion of Russia’s economy, and its probable defence manufacturing sector, under the impact of sweeping Western sanctions, could further push the Central Asian Republics towards China, leading to closer economy and security cooperation.
Besides, the void created due to Russia’s isolation on the global stage due to actions initiated by the West could further enhance China’s manoeuvring space in regional geopolitics and economic linkages. For instance, with MasterCard and Visa suspending operations in Russia, the Chinese are gleefully looking to enter the vacant payments space through their ‘UnionPay’ mechanism. Similarly, Chinese companies of the ilk of Didi Chixing and Lenovo, are staying put in Russia while Western ones have made a beeline for the exit.
Beijing is obviously aware of the opportunities available, and hence, while remaining neutral on the surface, is watchfully trying to further its geopolitical interests. And sweeping Western sanctions on Russia is only pushing Moscow closer to Beijing much of the discomfiture and frustration of certain other key economies in Eurasia and Asia.
