While most of the country had a mild start to winter, the most recent forecasts indicate that we may … [+]
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While we are more than halfway through winter, the remaining winter months still have the potential to bring us a few surprises. This season has already brought the U.S. several firsts and records with tornadoes and warmth. And, while most of the country had a mild start to winter, the most recent forecasts indicate that we may see more extreme winter weather across portions of the U.S. followed by an active severe weather season that looks to be much more vigorous than in recent years.
So, what has winter delivered so far? Last December, mild temperatures prevailed across much of the Central and Eastern regions of the country, with the lone cold spot in the Pacific Northwest. The most significant weather events in December were the spring-like storm patterns that produced significant tornado outbreaks, causing major damage and loss of life across more than nine states, and the Marshall fire in Colorado, which was fueled by dry vegetation, low humidity, warm temperatures along with dangerous wind gusts of 60-100+ mph. While much of the country was warm and dry, some areas of the Pacific Northwest into Alaska had above-normal precipitation with several winter storms dropping significant snow.
And while warmer winter weather sounds enjoyable, the impacts of that December warmth in the South were significant. There was widespread damage from the first tornado outbreak and it ended up being the deadliest December tornado outbreak on record. Texas recorded its hottest December on record in more than 130 years and across the entire state, temperatures averaged 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Those warm temperatures contributed to ongoing drought and as of the first of the year, more than 50% of the state experienced severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The impact on crops has been significant and it was recently reported that the Panhandle region of Texas had one of its worst winter wheat crops in ten years.
It’s a different story in the north, where cold blanketed the Northern half of the U.S. with January seeing several major snowstorms. Over New Year’s, portions of the Plains and Midwest saw more than a foot of snow. There was the mid-Atlantic region snowstorm that resulted in traffic issues and stranded motorists on I-95 as the result of up to 15 inches of snow as well.
So, what is in store for the rest of the winter and into spring? We expect the pattern to trend more La Niña-like during February with more active winter weather, including a higher risk of cold temperatures in particularly in the Pacific Northwest. On the other hand, there will be increasingly warmer conditions taking hold in the East and expanding westward throughout the remainder of the winter. This spring will likely be a more active severe weather season with near to above normal precipitation and snow along the U.S. and Canada border and wetter than normal conditions in the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions, which may cause localized flooding.
Because significant severe weather outbreaks will be possible, businesses, municipalities, and the public need to be aware of the local severe weather threats. There are plenty of up-to-date forecasts—from government, media, and private weather companies—along with mobile weather apps, online weather portals, mobile alerts, and the vigilance of weather experts to keep the public weather aware. A crucial component to keeping people and assets safe is having a plan before a weather event and knowing when it is time to put the plan in motion, and with plenty of winter left there will likely be more challenging storms ahead.
